Yoon Jeung-hyun, the country’s new Minister of Strategy and Finance, says the economy might end up with -2 percent growth this year, and that he is going to strive to turn that around. Exports shrank more than 30 percent last month and the road ahead remains unclear, too, so Yoon is saying he is going to get the flame burning on the domestic consumption engine. He said he is going to continue to supply liquidity so that the economy doesn’t lose more altitude, and that he is going to seek additional funds in the budget as soon as possible.

  The growth prediction he provides is some five percentage points lower than the +3 percent goal for growth his ministry came up with just a month ago. It is at least fortunate that he is putting the optimistic expectations away and seeing reality for what it is. The market had lost all confidence in his predecessor, Kang Man-soo, who remained deep in his illusions about President Lee Myung-bak’s “747” plan even with the global economy hurting like it is and tried to pull the growth rate up with artificial means. Other than turning ever so slightly from his emphasis on exports to appreciating domestic activity, he was unable to alleviate any of the pain, for having followed exactly a written prescription that was wrong in its assessment of the unprecedented crisis.

  Yoon was right to note that the windchill factor the Korean people feel from the economy is far worse than even the regular economic indicators, and when he described the situation as one in which factors for instability continue to exist in international markets. He was also right to predict that the global stagnation could continue for a considerable time to come. Instead of hastily packaged stimulus packages, the government needs to be spending its effort on embracing the vulnerable in our society and, as painful as it might be, improving the economy’s structural makeup. The loss of jobs and the collapse of small and individual businesses are serious threats to the livelihood of the common Korean. Those in the lower income brackets, who have since the financial crisis of 1997 been living on debt, have taken a direct hit in all of this and are at the brink. There are said to now be more than three million “new poor” (sin bin’gon cheung who are receiving nothing in the way of government assistance.

    “There are limits to what economic policy can do about the crisis by itself, so I hope there is an atmosphere of sharing and giving that leads to a voluntary, public campaign of cooperation to overcome the crisis,” said Yoon. But in a situation in which the market has failed, the government needs to demonstrate what sharing and giving are.

  The big corporations that went through restructuring during the financial crisis of 1997 are a little better off than others, but mid-sized companies are walking on thin ice each day. Only by helping mid-sized companies survive can the country prevent unemployment chaos and keep the economy from paralysis. We need to prevent the rapid collapse of mid-sized companies and the lives of the common Korean with taxation based on their payment ability, yet Yoon, unfortunately, is repeating the same mantra about tax cuts and deregulation.

  One worries the socioeconomic gap is going to grow even wider with Yoon talking about jobs but ignoring the need to protect irregular workers and hurriedly moving to deregulate real estate and the separation of financial and industrial capital. We hope to see profoundly changed policy.

나눔과 베풂이 무엇인지 정부가 보여야

  윤증현 새 기획재정부 장관은 올해 경제성장률이 마이너스 2%로 떨어질 수 있어 이를 플러스로 돌리기 위해 노력하겠다고 밝혔다. 지난달 수출이 30% 넘게 꺼지고 향후 전망도 불투명해 내수 엔진을 지피는 데 주력하겠다는 뜻이다. 윤 장관은 경기가 더 하강하지 않도록 유동성을 계속 공급하고, 될수록 일찍 추경을 추진하겠다고 한다.

  그의 전망은 불과 한 달 남짓 전 재정부가 성장률 목표치로 3%를 제시했던 데 비해 무려 5%포인트 낮춰잡은 것이다. 윤 장관이 낙관적 기대를 접고 현실을 직시한 것은 그나마 다행이다. 전임 강만수 장관은 세계경제가 몸살을 앓는 상황에서도 ‘747’의 환영을 벗어나지 못하고 인위적으로 성장률을 끌어올리려 함으로써 시장의 신뢰를 잃었다. 그러나 수출에서 내수로 약간 선회한 것말고는 미증유의 위기에 대한 잘못된 처방전을 그대로 읽어 위안을 주지 못했다.

  윤 장관이 말했듯 국민이 피부로 느끼는 어려움은 지표상의 숫자를 훨씬 뛰어넘고, 국제 금융시장에는 불안요인이 상존하며, 세계 경기침체도 상당기간 지속될 수 있는 상황이다. 성급한 경기부양보다는 취약계층을 끌어안고 고통스럽더라도 체질개선을 하는 데 힘써야 한다. 무엇보다 실직과 영세 자영업의 몰락으로 서민들의 생존권이 크게 위협받고 있다. 지난 외환위기 이후 계속 빚을 얻어 생활해 온 하위 소득자들은 직격탄을 맞아 생존의 벼랑에 몰리고 있다. 정부 지원을 한푼도 받지 못하는 신빈곤층은 이미 300만명을 넘어섰다고 한다. 윤 장관은 “경제정책만으로는 위기 대응에 한계가 있으며, 나눔과 베풂의 분위기가 민간의 자발적 위기극복 협력운동으로 전개되길 기대한다”고 했는데, 지금 같은 시장 실패 상황에선 정부가 나눔과 베풂이 무엇인지를 보여줘야 한다.

  외환위기 당시 구조조정을 했던 대기업은 형편이 낫지만 중소기업은 하루하루 살얼음판이다. 중소기업을 살려야 고용대란을 막고 경제가 마비되는 것을 막을 수 있다. 담세능력에 맞게 세금을 거둬 서민과 중소기업의 급격한 붕괴를 막아야 함에도 윤 장관은 감세와 규제완화의 정책기조를 되뇌고 있다.

  일자리를 강조하면서 비정규직 보호를 외면하고, 특정 계층의 이해에 부합하는 금산 분리와 부동산 규제완화를 서두르니 양극화의 골이 더욱 깊어지지 않을까 걱정된다. 획기적인 정책 전환을 기대한다.

[한겨레사설 2/10]